CBS News reported Sunday evening that, despite the onslaught of mainstream polls outlining otherwise, President Donald Trump could win re-election on Tuesday night if he gets the turnout that is expected come Election Day.
The news network noted of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s suspected lead with early voting in key states while emphasizing that Trump supporters are far more likely to turn out on Election Day, which they likened to a “Republican-surge scenario.”
“Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3,” CBS said.
“We estimate from our polling that Mr. Trump is doing, on average, over 30 percentage points better among likely Election-Day voters than early voters. We know the approximate size of the early vote so far, and we vary the potential size of the Election-Day vote to explore two scenarios,” the network explained. “In our Republican-surge scenario, the size of the Election-Day vote is relatively large, so given that these voters break for Mr. Trump, it mitigates Biden’s early-vote edge, and Mr. Trump inches out close wins in enough states to go over 270. (We increased the size of the Election-Day vote by an average of seven points in this scenario, while keeping vote preference among early voters and Election-Day voters fixed.)”
Here’s what the map would look like in the Republican Election Day “surge” scenario, per CBS:
CBS cautions that “it doesn’t take much” for Trump to lose the election.
“If some of the people planning to vote on Tuesday decide not to show up, and the size of the Election-Day vote decreases by an average of three points from our initial estimates, the net result is pretty dramatic,” the report said. “Given Biden’s overall preference leads, nearly all the competitive states either flip to Biden or stay in his column, giving him a comfortable win.”
A Trump win in 2016 was notoriously underestimated by Democrats, their allies in the mainstream media, and a large majority of the polling industry. Media figures openly laughed at the prospect of a Trump and put the odds on a Hillary Clinton win anywhere from 80 to 100%.
Sources: CBS News, The Daily Wire, and The Hill; Photo: CNBC.com